October 28th, 2010
It was one thing for lefty pundits to look silly a few weeks ago arguing that Things Might Not Be That Bad. After all, they had to rally the base and convince voters that the Democratic ship wasn’t sunk yet.
But to be making that case five days before the election? Either Errol Louis is plugged into some really deep statistical analysis–and will look like the smartest guy in American on Wednesday morning–or he’s such a partisan that he doesn’t mind taking one for the team in what will probably be the final rally-the-base column of the cycle.
My guess is the latter. But if Donks lose fewer than 50 seats on Tuesday, I’ll tip my hat to Louis.
(I don’t know where Vegas has the line, but it should probably be somewhere around 60 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate. Right now I’d take the over on the House and stay away from the Senate. More prognosticating next week.)
All of that said, one of the more interesting questions right now is, How big a loss is figured into the expectations cake at this point?
One of the problems with all of the columns like Louis’ is that they probably serve to tamp down GOP expectations as much as they help with Dem voter perceptions. I wonder how the media and/or Dem establishment and/or Obama White House will view the various numbers on the Defcon scale. Are expectations such as a 50-seat swing is baked into the cake already? Or would 50 seats cause all of the impact-warning sensors on Air Force One to start sounding? How about 60 seats?
I assume that if the number goes higher than 65, then there’s no way for anyone to downplay the results.
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