A Quick Word of Caution on NC, VA, and FL
October 18th, 2012

It’s excellent news for Mitt Romney that Obama seems to be writing off Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

But on the other hand, shouldn’t Virginia and North Carolina have been stone-cold locks for the GOP this time around? There is no universe in which VA and NC were true battleground states and the Republicans were in serious contention for the White House. Put another way: If the GOP was slugging it out in those two states, it meant they were getting creamed in the real battlegrounds.

Now, it could well be that we’re at the beginning of a long swing upwards for Romney (if Florida really comes off the board, that could be a sign). But to paraphrase Winston Wolf, let’s not all start giving each other high fives just yet.

  1. Dave October 18, 2012 at 12:14 pm

    I’m not sure you quoted Winston Wolf accurately there.

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  3. A.S. October 18, 2012 at 12:32 pm

    Correct for NC, but how do you figure for Virginia? Obama won Virginia by 6.3 points – more than he won Ohio by. No reason to think that Virginia would be any less of a battleground than Ohio.

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  5. Thomas Mets October 18, 2012 at 12:57 pm

    Virginia has changed significantly in the last few years. In 2008, it was the state that came closest to matching the national popular vote. And there are some arguments that the demographics continue to shift towards the Democratic party.

    So in a close election, it should be a battleground.

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  7. SkinsFanPG October 18, 2012 at 2:40 pm

    I’m with A.S.: VA as a battleground has less to do with Romney v. Obama and more to do with the changing demographics of the state. It’s not a solid red state now, it’s decidedly purple, and NoVA is pretty blue. VA is a battleground state from now on, regardless of the candidates.

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  9. Nedward October 18, 2012 at 11:09 pm

    Hahaha, most timid paraphrase evar

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  11. Jason O. October 19, 2012 at 9:29 am

    JVL’s intent is to get everyone’s mind off of Gallup, which is a good idea, but he’s straying a bit too much into a Lou Holtz “poor-mouthing” your own team mode…i.e., back in the day when ND was ranked #1 and Holtz would say things like: “This Navy team terrifies me, they could beat us in at least two phases of the game.”