August 5th, 2016
A short piece on what the post-convention bounce environment looks like this week. I tentatively believe that the total cratering of Trump late this week–down double digits in several polls–is temporary. He’ll probably close back to within 5 or 6 points, at which point Republican elites will convince themselves that he’s changed, is getting better, etc. It’ll be just close enough to convince people to stay on the roller coaster, even though they know the ride is unsafe and likely to end in disaster.
Though it’s also possible that this is like 1988 and Clinton won’t look back. Because, you know, Trump is patently, and obviously, unfit for the office. And also because there will be more Khan moments. There always are. So I’m open to the idea that we may have passed the tipping point.
The argument in favor of the tipping point view is that there’s a clock here. If Trump doesn’t close back up in the next four weeks, there will be a cascade effect as the money and dries up and down-ballot candidates start running away from him as fast as they can. And if that happens, the recriminations will start within the campaign and the party. Trump will shift from attacking Clinton to blame-casting. It’ll start with RINOs like Ted Cruz and George Will. (And will probably end with The Jews.) It’s entirely possible that the campaign will effectively be finished by September 15.
Also, there’s my piece on the remarkable similarities between Paul Ryan and Marshal Philippe Pétain. It is tragic to understand that Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh will probably survive Trump, but Ryan will not. Of all the people who dishonored themselves this year, none was more surprising than Ryan. But when this is over, there will be no place for him in national politics.
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