November 2nd, 2010
As promised, I’m going to venture a guess at what’s happening. Some thoughts, in no particular order.
* Two weeks ago, the CW seemed to have 50-ish seats as the best bet.
* Last week, the CW seemed to believe that 60 seats was the most likely GOP pickup.
* Looking around, I believe that as of Sunday night, 70 is the new 60.
* The major reason for this shift was Gallup’s release of its final generic ballot numbers. As my buddy Jay Cost explains, the final GOP generic lead in 1994 was +6.4 and they wound up with a net of 54 seats. Gallup’s final number this time is GOP +15. The RCP average is only GOP +9.4. If you drew a straight-line, this would put the Republican pickup today somewhere in the range of net +79 and +126.
* I doubt that this straight-line projection is much help, but then again nobody knows because we’ve never seen numbers like this in the modern era.
* Also of some note is the gerrymandering of districts along racial lines. This practice produces a reliable number of minority House members, but at the cost of somewhat overstating the electoral throw-weight of Democrats in national polls. The astounding difference between Obama’s approval ratings among racial groups suggests that the polls we look at today may understate how well Republicans will perform.
At the end of the day, who knows what this all means. Predictions are just a parlor game and we’ll know soon enough. But since parlor games are fun, I’ll throw out a guess: Republicans pick up a net of +80.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished at +65 or +70. And I also wouldn’t be totally shocked if they finished +90. Ninety seats seems totally within the realm of the possible, if not the likely. (I would be very surprised if the pickup was sub-60.)
Update: I’m still not sure what number would shake Democrats into worrying about Obama in 2012 (meaning, pushing for a primary challenge or for him to not run for reelection). I suspect that if such a number exists, it’s likely to be very, very high. And in any case, it’s unlikely Dems will reach for the eject button on Obama, however much they might like to.
However, if a Democrat was so inclined to punch out of Obamaworld, there’s an easy line to take: That Obama has already accomplished so much for the country that the most important thing left now is to consolidate those gains and to make sure Those Evil Republicans don’t repeal them. In fact, Obama’s contributions are so immense that they’re more important than the man himself, even!
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Apropos of nothing…
My fervent hope is that Oregon doesn’t shoot itself in the foot . . . again! . . . and elect the failed former Democrat governor and fake cowboy. If Kitzhaber wins, it’ll prove that Oregon’s voters are simply RoboDems, voting for anyone with a D next to his name, regardless of his record and policy ideas (hello, sales tax).
There’s also a measure on the ballot to allow for a casino that would raise mondo bucks for state coffers and provide thousands of high paying jobs. If it’s rejected, the developers have already said they’ll just put it across the river in Washington (er, Worshington?) State. The casino will be built: why not make sure its built here? It’s strange here in Oregon: cons across the country are jubilant, but I’m seriously concerned.
SkinsFanPG November 2, 2010 at 11:40 am
I still like using a PERT model, so here is a new one based on a few assumptions:
Optimistic: 85 seats
Most Likely: 65 seats
Pessimistic: 50 seats
(85+260+50)/6= 67 seat pickup
If I had to pick a range I’d be comfortable predicting somewhere between 65-75 seats in the house, 8+ in the senate.
Now for the really important predictions:
How will Andrew Sullivan react? – My best guess is that he’ll react with a combination of anger towards any who reject “The One” and attempt to rationalize how this has nothing to do with Obama in the first place.
How will Nate Silver react? – He’ll basically ignore everything he’s written in the past year+ (which repeatedly understated what polls were saying, based on his super-awesome mathematical genius) and claim that this is what he predicted all along.
How will (insert black pundit here) react? – Head for the hills! RACISM is BACK!
How will (insert National Review employee here) react? – They will probably misread the election as a mandate to do X, similar to how liberals overreacted to 2006 and 2008.