May 4th, 2012
Shorter Scott Conroy: There’s a small, regional minority which is going to vote heavily in favor of Mitt Romney–but they won’t vote unanimously!
This would have been an interesting piece if it had explored (1) What sort of share of the Mormon vote Romney is likely to get–will it be closer to 90 percent or 98 percent–given how Mormons have broken for the GOP in the last several presidential elections. And (2) How this percentage compares with minority group voting solidarity in other historical “first” elections, ie. percentage of blacks breaking for Obama in 2008; percentage of Catholics breaking for Kennedy in 1960.
Someone is going to have to write this piece eventually anyway. Might as well get it out of the way now when there’s no real campaign news.
The research should also include the Catholic vote percentage of Alfred Smith in 1928, as the first Catholic nominated (though not elected).