June 1st, 2015
I’m all for making predictions, but I tend to do it by way of laying odd on outcomes. This may look like a cowardly hedge, but it’s really just a sign of how unpredictable I think the world is. You can say that some outcomes are extremely likely. For instance, it seems extremely likely that Hillary Clinton will be her party’s nominee this year. This is probably an 8- or 9-in-10 outcome at this point. But you have to respect a 10 percent chance. If I told you there was a 1-in-10 chance you’d get killed if you rode a bus today, you’d stay off the bus.
All of which is by way of saying that Bill Scher is laying down a hell of a marker in this Politico piece:
I am going to tell you, right now, what the political landscape of the future looks like so you don’t waste your time over the next year listening to a parade of pundits or watching those ridiculous primary debates. The 2016 election is going to come down to Hillary vs. Jeb, of course.
Umm, okay? But if Bush and Clinton aren’t the nominees, I don’t really know how you climb down from that.
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