April 28th, 2014
Everyone keeps talking about the Francis Effect. The pope has captured the world’s imagination with his warmth, apparent merriness and palpable affection for those who are poor and imprisoned, in whatever way—jail, loneliness, illness, disability. An American cardinal smiles and shakes his head when he tells me that nowadays his seminaries are full.
Boy, that really is some effect. Francis assumed the throne of Peter on March 13, 2013 and just 13 months later, the “seminaries are full.” This suggests three possibilities:
(1) The Francis Effect is so powerful that within weeks of his ascension, a generation of young men suddenly decided to enter the priesthood because of him.
(2) A rising wave of vocations has been nurtured and seeded in the American Church by other, hardline, pontiffs who led the Church for the vast majority of these young men’s lives.
(3) Or, once again you have Catholics who should know better talking nonsense.
If there was a Francis Effect, it wouldn’t be hard to measure. Look at Church attendance year over year, from March 2012 to March 2013 and so on. Do the same thing with giving. Then look to enrollment in the vocations, numbers of baptisms, etc.
The fact that no one touting the Francis Effect actually shows any of these elementary numbers is pretty suggestive.
Update: Rod Dreher notes a particularly silly tweet from Pope Francis, who may or may not be angling to become the patron saint of Vox Dot Com.
And remember, I’m one of the bleeding hearts who thinks that “inequality” is a real problem.
Update 2: From Galley Friend L.B. in the comments:
Pew Research actually did a survey of American Catholics in March and found, as you might suspect, that the “Francis Effect” is bunk, at least when it comes to tangible stuff like Mass attendance or going to confession, as opposed to people just saying “He’s the Greatest Pope Eh-vur!”
http://www.pewforum.org/2014/03/06/catholics-view-pope- francis-as-a-change-for-the- better/
Money quote: “But despite the pope’s popularity and the widespread perception that he is a change for the better, it is less clear whether there has been a so-called ‘Francis effect,’ a discernible change in the way American Catholics approach their faith. There has been no measurable rise in the percentage of Americans who identify as Catholic. Nor has there been a statistically significant change in how often Catholics say they go to Mass. And the survey finds no evidence that large numbers of Catholics are going to confession or volunteering in their churches or communities more often.”
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JVL — Pew Research actually did a survey of American Catholics in March and found, as you might suspect, that the “Francis Effect” is bunk, at least when it comes to tangible stuff like Mass attendance or going to confession, as opposed to people just saying “He’s the Greatest Pope Eh-vur!”
http://www.pewforum.org/2014/03/06/catholics-view-pope-francis-as-a-change-for-the-better/Money quote: “But despite the pope’s popularity and the widespread perception that he is a change for the better, it is less clear whether there has been a so-called ‘Francis effect,’ a discernible change in the way American Catholics approach their faith. There has been no measurable rise in the percentage of Americans who identify as Catholic. Nor has there been a statistically significant change in how often Catholics say they go to Mass. And the survey finds no evidence that large numbers of Catholics are going to confession or volunteering in their churches or communities more often.”
But, but, but … Lots of Catholics say they think the new Pope is super cool! (According to the same survey of American “Catholics”: “Nearly eight-in-ten say the church should permit birth control, while roughly seven-in-ten say the church should allow priests to get married and allow women to become priests.”)
Nedward May 4, 2014 at 9:37 pm
“News is what people do not want you to print. All the rest is advertising.” -Bob Marley