September 29th, 2011
My Daily column this week is on the Perry fade and they’ve let this one off of the tablet and into the wild–you can read it here.
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You make some good points about what Perry can still pull out of his quiver. But what he faces in terms of trying to win back all the bandwagon jumpers who shot his poll numbers up early on is that they were enthusiasts who lost heart when they actually got to know him a little. Advantage Romney, whose supporters all along have been voters who know Reagan’s not coming back. What they “like” about him is that he isn’t Obama and seems reasonably electable. Romney’s supporters are cynics; Perry’s are (increasingly) broken-hearted romantics. “Fool me once…”
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SFPG: Well, that’s why I wrote “like” instead of like. Romney, as Arthur Miller put it, is liked but not well-liked. No one’s passionate about him, but in the CW, he’ll do…as long as he can defeat Obama. If enough Republican primary voters agree that he looks the part, they may hold their noses and he may indeed back in. Lincoln didn’t win many elections either till he won the big one.
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P.S. To amplify: The passion and excitement that Romney doesn’t generate is his greatest asset in that he’s less likely to disappoint anyone.
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Perry has been neutralized to some degree in the power of the attacks that he can make on Romney. If Perry attacks Romney as a flip-flopper Romney will bring up Perry’s flip-flop on social security. If Perry attacks Romney on healthcare Romney will bring up immigration. If Perry attacks Romney on Bain Capital Romney will bring up the Texas economy. Romney is also likely to have significantly more money than Perry to run ads with.
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“Whatever line Perry chooses, he should move soon. Someone else is going to get a second look by early-state voters”
Someone else: Christie, perhaps?
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That or a write-in campaign for zombie Reagan
SkinsFanPG September 29, 2011 at 3:09 pm
GF JE: you write, “What they “like” about him is that he isn’t Obama and seems reasonably electable.” This may be true, but it is unclear what the source of such optimism comes from. As JVL pointed out numerous times, Romney doesn’t win elections.