April 8th, 2015
This Josh Kraushaar piece strikes me as pretty much right: liberals have made such a fetish of identity politics over the last eight years that it’s hard to imagine how the Democratic party could nominate another straight white male as their presidential candidate in the foreseeable future. Almost certainly not in 2016. Probably not in 2020. And the demographics of the question keep accelerating the situation as minorities make up larger shares of the Democrats because of white flight from the party.
And there are so many firsts to be made: first woman, first Hispanic, first WOC, first gay man, first lesbian, first gay/lesbian of color. It could be that by the time the party has gotten around to checking all of these boxes they’ll even be ready and eager for a first trans nominee.
This addiction to identity raises the following question: When will the Democrats nominate another straight white guy? Place your bets below.
2020 is HRC loses, 2024 or 2028 if she wins.
Hillary isn’t running. She will not be a candidate on this day 2016. The email issue is going to become a much bigger deal. Tommy Carcetti may not get the nod (watch Warren get in the race as Hillary falters), but it isn’t going to be Hillary,