October 25th, 2010
New York Magazine has a long John Heilemann piece on how Sarah Palin’s 2012 run might play out in conjuncture with a Bloomberg third-party run. It’s worth reading.
At this point, the only scenario regarding 2012 which is more likely to happen than not is that President Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Everything else has a less-than-even chance of happening. That said, people should not discount even the less-likely possibilities because the environment is so unpredictable. After Obamacare passed, I wrote the following:
As a political matter this was a destabilizing act. Passing a gargantuan piece of legislation with permanent consequences for the country using only the support of one party (and against bipartisan opposition) against significant popular unhappiness with the legislation will have large political consequences, both immediate and long-term.
Seats that were safe will not be. Candidates who are not ready for prime-time will find themselves winning the political lottery. ObamaCare will destabilize the political environment in the same way the Iraq war did, upsetting coalitions, elevating new figures, and dooming once solid-seeming politicians on all sides.
I think we’ve seen that come to pass with people like Christine O’Donnell and Joe Miller rising, guys like Bob Bennett and Mike Castle put out to pasture, and warhorses like Barney Frank and Barbara Boxer suddenly running scared. Obamacare will still be looming on the horizon in 18 months–like Iraq, it’s an issue that won’t go away. And coupled with the unemployment numbers, I suspect it will create an environment where lots of outcomes are possible.
People tend to conflate Palin’s chances of political success with their opinions of her. As I’ve said before, I think that’s a mistake.
No comments yet, be the first:
