November 15th, 2005
So how bad is it? Bad. Very Bad.
The Eagles lost again last night, giving them a 4-5 record and effectively ending their season. There is virtually no hope of the playoffs now. McNabb is banged up again. The team’s weaknesses are obvious to everyone and easily exploited. Worse: They no longer have a championship swagger, the confidence that winning teams use to get the close ones.
How bad is it? The Eagles aren’t just 4-5, they’re 0-3 in their division. Before this season the Eagles were 22-4 in the NFC East over the last four years. Read that again 22-4. Those days are long gone. It isn’t clear that the Eagles will finish this season with even one victory in their division.
And don’t go buying the argument that this is just parity with the rest of the NFC East catching up. Yes, the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys are each slightly improved, but none of them is as good as their records suggest and I’ll be very surprised if any of them is good enough to win even a single playoff game. It’s a mediocre division and the Eagles are locked, gimp-style, in a box in the basement.
How bad is it? Over the last few years Philadelphia was Cover City. Before this season, over the last four years the Eagles were an amazing 44-29 against the point spread–that’s money in the bank. This year they’re 2-7.
Mind you, the point spread isn’t just about betting. It’s a measure of a team’s dx/dt, their slope: The spread is a good indication of whether a team is under or over-achieving. Forget their absolute record: The Eagles used to be an over-achieving team; now they’re not.
How bad is it? McNabb should go in for surgery–now. There’s no sense in keeping him on the field for meaningless games and risking more serious injury. Westbrook should be kept to a minimum of carries and the coaching staff should find out if Lamar Gordon is good enough to get 15-20 carries a game.
It’s bad in Philadelphia right now. But we won’t know how bad until next season. We know that Andy Reid can manage a reclaimation project; we know that he can manage a winner. Now we have to wait and see if he can manage a rebuilding year.
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