March 15th, 2016
Of all the arguments against Donald Trump, the one I find least valuable is “he’ll get pasted by Hillary Clinton in November.” A couple of thoughts:
*Certainly Trump performs worse than the other three Republicans against Clinton in prospective polling.
*But I would still rate his chances of victory reasonably as reasonably high. Say, 2-in-5. Why? Because Clinton is a terrible candidate–this cannot be overstated. Because Trump would be waging asymmetric war against her. Because everybody’s turnout models would be scrambled beyond recognition. Because he would make the race wildly unpredictable. Probably he loses 40 states. But maybe he wins 40 states. We can make educated guesses, but no one really knows. If he’s the nominee, it means we’re living in a new world.
*Truth is, I’d be much more sublime about the prospect of Trump winning the nomination if I had a high degree of confidence that he could be beaten in the fall. The correct argument against Trump isn’t that “he’ll lose in November.” It’s that he is not fit to president; full stop. If you’re anti-Trump now, then you should be anti-Trump even in a world where he leads Clinton by +10.
*The alt-view of this, however, is that the CW is correct and that Clinton really will crush Trump. As I said, I have no real confidence in her as a candidate. But in a general election, it’s not just the candidate and her machine may be more formidable. For a road-test on what the campaign could look like, here’s an ad about all the ugly things Trump has said about women. It doesn’t strike me as terribly effective. But then, I’m not the target demo.
As a very smart friend pointed out:
The Clinton campaign just needs to deter women from voting for Trump. They can vote for Hillary, or for the independent conservative candidate, or they can just stay home. It’s going to be the millstone they hang around Trump’s neck, like they did to Romney with some of his own tone-deaf comments.
By the end, Trump will be bleeding out of his nose, bleeding out of his whatever.
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“I’d be much more sublime about the prospect of Trump winning…”
Sublime? Wrong word. — ed.
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But is Trump so unfit to be President that it would be morally justified to assassinate him to stop it from happening?
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Sanguine is the word you’re looking for.
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Same comment: did you mean “sanguine?”
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Both candidates are unfit to be President. Hillary is an unaccomplished geriatric criminal with 100 FBI agents and a grand jury on her obese A$s. Trump is a mysoginist unethical d-bag. It comes down to who you think is the lesser of two evils.
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Years ago many former Democrats left the Party because it had gone too far left. Now that the real Marxist heart of the Party has been exposed by Sanders, and the Party has officially gone over the edge, more are leaving. A friend who just switched Parties explained it this way: Democrats have gone so far to the extreme left that they are running open Marxists for US president! In my lifetime, commie thugs with Sanders ideology vowed to bury us and the US Govt trained us to kill them and sent us overseas to do just that. While Reagan and GHWB were waging a brilliant war to defeat the evil Soviet Union, Sanders took his bride there on their honeymoon! If you thought Howard Dean was crazy – and he is – then Bernie Sanders belongs in a padded cell….along with much of the rest of the Democrat Party! Instead of promising a chicken in every pot….Sanders promise is a fruitcake in every closet! And Hillary Clinton is so corrupt she makes John Edwards look ethical!
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Hillary will need to use up all her stinky snukes to beat Trump…
Cankles will be vanquished to prison when Chris Christie gets through with her…. -
Sorry, but she will crush him in the debates. She gives lousy speeches, but she is sharp and knows her stuff. What’s he gonna do? Insult her?
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How could anyone even make a statement about assassinating a president because some people may think he’s unfit to be president. That is dangerous thinking for our country, for our constitution, and for our children.
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Sanguine!
Problem with that word is I have no idea how to pronounce it. Is it “Sangwine”?
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Independent voters that are necessary to win a general election would be so disgusted with the horrible things he’s said about women and that gives Hillary the perfect opportunity to pull the gender card and galvanize female voters who may not have supported her up to that point. It’s been an effective line of attack to point out Hillary’s disgraceful treatment of Bill’s victims but that means nothing if Trump is the opponent! Liberal friends of mine don’t want to vote for Hillary but they also say that they see the same things they hate in Hillary in Trump, as well. They still plan on voting for Sanders, even if they have to write his name in on the ballot!
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I have been a #Never since I first heard him speak. As a history and poly sci buff I recognized the tone, lack of substance, vilification of certain groups as sounding much like the authoritarian strongmen of Europe in the 30s and South America later. He is unfit and dangerous. Hillary is corrupt and incompetent. What a choice!
Women will not vote for him, Hispanics, blacks, young people, few educated, and intelligent men. It will be a smashing victory for Hillary. I just hope Trump can be stopped even if it is by Hillary. The Republican Party must stop him at convention. Let his devotees walk. It is apparent many are Democrats, people who rarely vote, and few serious Republicans. They will not be missed. They are not the “voice” of the people like the media keep harping. -
Pamela,
You say, “few educated, and intelligent men” will vote for Trump but that’s not what the data says so far:
http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2016/03/trump-continues-to-win-among-educated.html
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Democrats would never let principles get in the way of voting for the party’s candidate in a general election. Not sure what’s gained by letting Hillary win. While she has foreign policy experience, it’s bad. Not sure what real-life economic experience she has and I think it’s clear she’ll be a shill for bankers. We survived Obama even though he never really had a career before getting elected to the Senate, and has no real world skills. Until the book took off, Obama was living off of home equity and had Rubio’s precarious financial situation.
The bureaucracy really runs this Country into the ground and Hillary would be an enabler for all kinds of stuff. Trump may at least to pretend to give a crap. Not an argument for why Trump is great, just an assessment of a very curious choice that we will be forced to make this Fall.
Gerald Hensley March 15, 2016 at 10:47 am
Jonathan – I’m not sure that you could be more sublime – even if you tried.