April 15th, 2011
David Brooks and Peggy Noonan go in opposite directions today.
Noonan: “Barack Obama can be taken, and his adversaries haven’t even noticed. In fact, he will likely lose in 2012.”
Brooks: “It doesn’t take a genius to see that Obama is very likely to be re-elected.”
They can’t both be right–or can they!
Just as a straight-up statistical matter the odds of an incumbent politician in America being reelected, 19 months out from a general election, are always better than 50 percent. The advantages of incumbency are so large, and every other electoral factor so uncertain, that the most “likely” outcome of any given race is that the sitting pol wins.
That said, you could make a case that for a variety of factors, Obama’s likelihood of reelection might be smaller than the average. If–and I’m just making up numbers here to illustrate the point–the average incumbent 19 months out gets 60-40 odds of winning, Obama might well be closer to 55-45. Your numbers might differ, but I doubt many people looking objectively at the situation would argue that, at this point, Obama’s odds are better than the average incumbent POTUS.
So Brooks is judging by overall historical averages and Noonan is judging by the trend lines on this particular president. They’re both probably overstating their case, but (1) that’s what columnists do; and (2) they’re both probably closer in the analysis than they seem.
That said: The most interesting thing up on the web today concerning Obama is this little nugget from Kaus:
Cost doesn’t go into why Obama managed to get to the top of politics without being all that good at it. The answer is distressingly obvious: Obama’s the biggest affirmative action baby in history. When other pols are trying, failing, learning, while climbing up the middle rungs of the ladder, he got a pass
I would hazard to say that for Obama this lens would mean big political trouble, if it came to be part of the sub rosa critique of his presidency. But I’m not sure that it could ever be tolerated as part of polite discussion.
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The weird thing is, not even Limbaugh or Savage or Coulter or Beck could say that…only Kaus has that particular “juice” which insulates him from the standard charges of racism to break it down properly.
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Judith, it reminds one of Robert Byrd on Fox news Sunday with Tony Snow…or was Byrd just a huge Elvis Costello fan??
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Intrade has POTUS at 59% for re-election.
Judith April 15, 2011 at 10:31 pm
Jason O., before I read your comment I was thinking – only a Democrat could get away with saying what Kaus said – or else, Mark Levin, who I think just wouldn’t care.