October 14th, 2015
The big winner, obviously, was Hillary Clinton. More on that over at the Standard.
But the more I think about it, the more I think that Clinton’s performance last night might have hurt the GOP outsider candidates–Trump, Fiorina, and especially Carson.
My sense is that for the last six months engaged Republicans have assumed that Clinton was the walking wounded and that she was going to be an easy take-down for whoever gets nominated from the Historically Awesome Field.
Instead, last night was a reminder that Clinton is a formidable figure in her own right. And that even when she has half a year’s worth of problems that would kill any normal candidacy, she just keeps plugging along and fighting. She never gives up. Anyone who doesn’t appreciate what an asset her tenacity is, is a fool.
I suspect some Republicans watching last night were reminded of this for the first time in a long time.
Consequently, I suspect that you can beat Clinton with an outsider who has no experience in electoral politics suddenly looks a lot dicier. If you’re a Trump supporter or a Fiorina supporter, maybe you can convince yourself that your candidate is uniquely tough. But if you’re a Carson supporter, I suspect you came away from last night thinking My guy is not prepared for this kind of anarchy.
My guess is that at least some Republicans watching the Dem debate were moved to re-appraise their assessment of Clinton and what it will take to beat her. And if so, it wouldn’t surprise me if Rubio is helped somewhat, because the core of his pitch is that he’s The Natural.
In part, I suspect that the rise of the Republican outsider candidates has been fueled by the belief the Clinton is weak, make it less of a gamble to support untraditional candidates. If Republicans believe that she’s strong, they may decide that they need the strongest traditional candidate available to beat her. And that’s Rubio. Hands down.
A. Evans October 29, 2015 at 8:58 am
Rubio could destroy Hillary in a debate. He is a more skilled debater than she.